Basketball

Western Conference Playoffs Race Predictions (Updated: 04/10)

Continually updated predictions as the regular season goes along.
Projected Standings and 1st Round Matchups updated the morning after all new games.

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We’re in the middle of March, which means we are in the home stretch of the NBA Regular Season and the jockeying for positions is starting to heat up. No, I’m not talking about the Tank Race going on at the bottom of the standings. Last night might have been a masterclass in tanking tactics, but it was also a night with huge playoff implications.

All the teams from #4 to #10 in the Western Conference played last night. The standings are so even now that only 2 games separated 4th from 10th before last night. It is so tight that every single game counts when deciding which two teams will end up outside of the playoffs. Form and strength of schedule comes into play and it’s hard to predict what will happen, but that doesn’t stop us from trying.

Let’s go through every team, look at their schedule and predict what their final record will be:

Denver Nuggets:

Current Record: 46-35 (#9)

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Currently at #10, the Denver Nuggets find themselves in a tough position. While most of the rest of the pack have been in their best form right now, the Nuggets find themselves in a bit of a slump.

Paul Millsap returned at the very end of February, as they had won 7 of 9 games leading up to that point and many wondered if they would now go into another gear and seal their place in the playoffs. Sadly for them, Millsap has largely struggled to become a factor and they have gone 4-4 since their major summer signing returned.

Losses to Clippers, Cavs, Lakers and lowly Mavs, all winnable games, means that the Denver Nuggets will have to make up some of those losses in tougher matches. Their upcoming schedule might start easy, but it becomes brutal fairly quickly.

 

Schedule:
*Back to Back

vs Pistons W ✔
@ Grizzlies W❌ L
@ Heat L ✔
@ Bulls W ✔
@ Wizards L❌ W
@ 76ers W❌ L
@ Raptors L* ✔
@ Thunder W ✔
vs Bucks W  ✔
vs Pacers L❌ W
vs Timberwolves W ✔
@ Clippers L❌ W
vs Blazers L❌ W
@ Timberwolves L

The Nuggets will soon spend 2 weeks on the road, with the games seemingly becoming harder the longer they stay away from the Pepsi Center. Denver, as per usual, are much better at home, sporting a pretty bad 11-21 record on the road. Considering they still have 7 teams above .500 away from home left, those are alarming numbers.

The final 10 games are all against teams better than .500, fighting for playoff positions. It’s going to be rough for the Denver Nuggets.

Final Record: 44-38 (46-36*)
*Updated

San Antonio Spurs:

Current Record: 47-34 (#5)

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Without Kawhi Leonard, the San Antonio Spurs have been in a slump for a while now and find themselves on the outside looking in. This is unprecedented from the most consistent team of the last 2 decades, who have made the playoffs for 20 seasons straight.

Kawhi was scheduled to return Thursday against the Pelicans, but that was pushed back. Only the latest development in the strange Kawhi saga this year. Who knows exactly when he will return, but it’s looking likely he’ll be back pretty soon. The Spurs really need it, considering they have the toughest schedule left in the league:

 

Schedule:
*Back to Back

vs Pelicans L❌ W
vs Timberwolves W ✔
vs Warriors L❌ W
vs Wizards W ✔
vs Jazz W ✔
@ Bucks W❌ L
@ Wizards L ✔
vs OKC L❌ W
vs Rockets W ✔
@ Clippers W❌ L
@ Lakers L* ✔
vs Blazers W ✔
vs Kings W ✔
@ Pelicans L

That is an insanely tough list of opponents.

Kawhi has to be back healthy sooner rather than later for this prediction to be accurate. The Spurs have been bad against the best teams in the league, with a 13-24 record against teams above .500.

Luckily for the Spurs, who are one of the best home teams in the league, they play a majority of matches in their AT&T Center. Getting off to a good start in this final stretch is paramount, with a 5 game homestand against above .500 teams. Only 2 of their final 14 games are against below .500 teams, with one of them being the surging LA Lakers.

Final Record: 46-36 (47-35*)
*Updated

Utah Jazz:

Current Record: 48-33 (#3)

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Back in late January, after a crushing loss to the Atlanta Hawks, no one would have thought that the Jazz would have a chance at reaching the playoffs. The team was 19-28 and had struggled without Rudy Gobert, who had just returned to the lineup.

Since then, the Jazz have gone on a staggering 19-2 run, including an 11 game winning streak. It goes to show how important it is to get back a defensive player of the year candidate. They are now building on a 7 game winning streak and are helped with 4 games against tanking teams coming up. Take a look at their remaining schedule.

 

Schedule:
*Back to Back

vs Suns W ✔
vs Kings W ✔
vs Hawks W❌ L
@ Mavericks W ✔
@ Spurs L* ✔
@ Warriors L❌ W
vs Celtics L ✔
vs Grizzlies W ✔
@ Timberwolves W ✔
vs Lakers W ✔
vs Clippers L❌ W
@ Lakers L❌ W
vs Warriors W ✔
@ Blazers L*

It gets tougher in the end for the Jazz, but with only 2 game left against the Warriors, Raptors and Rockets combined, almost every game will be winnable. The back to backs in Portland and San Antonio will be tough though.

If they finish off well, Donovan Mitchell will have a legitimate claim for Rookie of The Year.

Who Becomes ROTY in This Stacked Class?

Final Record: 46-36 (48-34*)
*Updated

Los Angeles Clippers (ELIMINATED):

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Current Record: 42-39 (#10)

The rag-tag Clippers are a surprise here as well, after trading away their two franchise players in Chris Paul and Blake Griffin in the span of about 7 months. Lou Williams caught on fire and not only did they come out on top of the Griffin trade in the future by trading away his huge contract, they have become a better team in the present as well. They are 12-5 after the Griffin trade.

Some of that is due to an easy schedule though, but what about their upcoming matches?

Schedule:
*Back to Back

@ Rockets L ✔
@ OKC L* ✔
vs Blazers W❌ L
@ Timberwolves L ✔
@ Bucks L*❌ W
@ Pacers W❌ L
@ Raptors L❌ W
vs Bucks W ✔
@ Suns W* ✔
@ Blazers L ✔
vs Pacers L ✔
vs Spurs L❌ W
@ Jazz W❌ L
vs Nuggets W❌ L
vs Pelicans W❌ L
vs Lakers W

Business is about to pick up. The next 8 games are against non-tanking opponents. 6 of them on the road. On paper, the Clippers have the weakest roster once Kawhi returns for the Spurs and similarly, the Clippers have struggled against the best teams. They are 12-23 against .500 teams, and I predict that they end up with 18-31 against them, which might even be too high.

Final Record: 45-37 (43-39*)
*Updated

Minnesota Timberwolves:

Current Record: 46-35 (#8)

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Jimmy Butler was having a season worthy of MVP consideration before he went down with an injury. He led the Timberwolves to the 3rd seed, looking poised to finally break the 13 year long streak without playoffs.

Then Butler got injured, and the Timberwolves facing a rough schedule are in danger of dropping out. Karl-Anthony Towns has put the team on his back now, leading to two wins against the Warriors and Wizards. Butler might return right before the playoffs start, but Towns will have to drag them into the postseason before then.

 

Schedule:
*Back to Back

@ Spurs L ✔
vs Rockets L* ✔
vs Clippers W ✔
@ Knicks W ✔
@ 76ers L* ✔
vs Grizzlies W❌ L
vs Hawks W ✔
@ Mavericks W ✔
vs Jazz L ✔
@ Nuggets L ✔
@ Lakers W* ✔
vs Grizzlies W ✔
vs Nuggets W

The team is at the end of a rough stretch, but the schedule eases up towards the end, including two home games against the hapless Grizzlies. Beware though, the Timberwolves lost their first encounter this season with the tankers from Memphis. They also get 3 tanking teams in a row, before the 5 vital games to end the season.

Final Record: 48-34 (47-35*)
*Updated

New Orleans Pelicans:

Current Record: 47-34 (#7)

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If Towns put the Timberwolves on his back, I don’t know how I would describe what Anthony Davis has done for the Pelicans. He has been the MVP since All-Star break, and averaged 41.3 PPG in the 3 games before All-Star as well. The talk about nagging injuries and when he will reach another level is gone, The Brow has arrived.

As if Davis’ workload wasn’t enough already, a postponed games against the Pacers makes matters worse. The Pelicans are facing a schedule with 5 games in 6 nights, a relic we thought we left back in the lockout season. Take a look:

 

Schedule:
*Back to Back
5 Games in 6 Nights

@ Spurs W❌ L
vs Rockets L ✔
vs Celtics L*❌ W
vs Mavericks W ✔
vs Pacers W* ✔
vs Lakers L*❌ W
@ Rockets L ✔
vs Blazers W❌ L
@ Cavaliers L ✔
vs OKC W ✔
vs Grizzlies W ✔
@ Suns W ✔
@ Warriors L*❌ W
@ Clippers L❌ W
vs Spurs W

The congested run is book-ended by road games against the Spurs and the Rockets. It will really test Davis’ mettle and durability. Luckily for them, the back to back.. to back, against Mavs, Pacers and Lakers, are all at home. If they can get a result against the Mavs, it might fire up the team and the crowd enough to survive. It’s gonna be a fun 6 nights in New Orleans, fittingly for this year’s WrestleMania host city.

Final Record: 47-35 (48-34*)
*Updated

Oklahoma City Thunder:

Current Record: 47-34 (#6)

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Another team that didn’t think they’d be in this spot before the season. This time, it’s not because they have done better than expected, but worse. I don’t know if anyone has figured out OKC yet, who feels like they fluctuate between winning and losing streaks all the time.

With last year’s MVP Russell Westbrook, and superstar two-way player Paul George, they should have the firepower to pull this off though. What about their upcoming schedule?

 

Schedule:
*Back to Back

vs Clippers W ✔
@ Raptors L❌ W
@ Celtics W❌ L
vs Heat L❌ W
vs Blazers W❌ L
@ Spurs W ✔
vs Nuggets L* ✔
@ Pelicans L ✔
vs Warriors W❌ L
@ Rockets L❌ W
@ Heat W ✔
vs Grizzlies W

Only a single tanking squad left, the prize of playing the Grizzlies awaits in the final game of the regular season. OKC are faced with an extra tough schedule, but luckily they are going into it on a roll, with 4 straight wins. They need a couple of big wins down the stretch to qualify for the postseason.

Final Record: 48-34 (48-34*)
*Updated

Portland Trail Blazers:

Current Record: 48-33 (#4)

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I thought about not even having the Blazers part of this prediction, because I think they are a #3 lock. Rip City have ripped off 10 straight wins, with several impressive victories. They have sorted out their defence, while 2 for 1 master Damian Lillard is playing at an MVP level.

Unlike Houston and Golden State, they are not quite secure in the top 3, so why not double check with their schedule?

 

Schedule:
*Back to Back

vs Cavaliers W ✔
vs Pistons W ✔
@ Clippers L*❌ W
vs Rockets L ✔
vs Celtics W❌ L
@ OKC L❌ W
@ Pelicans L❌ W
@ Grizzlies W*❌ L
vs Clippers W ✔
vs Grizzlies W ✔
@ Mavericks W❌ L
@ Rockets L ✔
@ Spurs L ✔
@ Nuggets W❌ L
vs Jazz W

With the level they are playing at, they should be able to secure the 3rd seed by the end of the season. They do have a lot of games left though, so any injuries can have major implications. That counts for every single team in this article, but I’m assuming good health.

Final Record: 50-32 (49-33*)
*Updated

Current Standings (04/10/2023):

Standings Wins Losses Division Conference
3. Utah Jazz 48 33 7-8 34-17
4. Portland Trail Blazers 48 33 8-7 30-20
5. San Antonio Spurs 47 34 9-6 29-22
6. Oklahoma City Thunder 47 34 5-11 27-24
7. New Orleans Pelicans 47 34 8-7 26-25
8. Minnesota Timberwolves 46 35 9-6 33-18
9. Denver Nuggets 46 35 9-6 28-23

Updated Predicted Standings (04/10/2023):

Standings Wins Losses Division Conference
3. Portland Trail Blazers 49 33 9-7 31-19
4. Oklahoma City Thunder 48 34 5-11 27-23
5. Utah Jazz 48 34 7-9 34-18
6. New Orleans Pelicans 48 34 9-7 27-25
7. San Antonio Spurs 47 35 9-7 28-23
8. Minnesota Timberwolves 47 35 10-6 34-18
9. Denver Nuggets 46 36 9-7 28-24
  • OKC win 3 team tie breaker with Jazz and Pelicans
  • Spurs win tie breaker with Timberwolves

Predicted 1st Round Matchups:

#1 Houston Rockets                      VS #8 Minnesota Timberwolves
#2 Golden State Warriors             VS #7 San Antonio Spurs
#3 Portland Trail Blazers              VS #6 New Orleans Pelicans
#4 Oklahoma City Thunder          VS #5 Utah Jazz

It’s going to be a tight race and feature even playoff matches. The Western Conference has never been more competitive.

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